Alarm: UNDP report last
80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050. Invest at least $ 86 billion annually by 2015 in efforts to adapt infrastructure and to protect poor people at risk for the effects of climate change. Population at risk right now amounts to one billion people. Finally, taxing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).
These are the three main measures contained in the report UNDP (United Nations Program for Development) in the conference in Bali (3-14 December) that will need to negotiate an agreement that will follow the current Kyoto Protocol.
REPORT - The Human Development Report 2007/2008, entitled "Fighting climate change," points out that the majority of OECD countries is lagging behind its commitments. It also stresses the discrepancy between the goals set at the political level to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and current energy policies in many EU countries. The authors argue that rich countries are fueling a crisis of ecological debt that will affect in the most immediate and profound impact on poor the world.
According to the report, dangerous climate change "will be inevitable" in the next 15 years if emissions follow the trend of the previous 15 years. For this climate change "require substantial choices humanity" and to avoid "catastrophic risks" can "only" choose to "act urgently" but the "awareness of this urgency is lacking at the moment." Among the new features of the Report, the proposal to establish a dedicated fund of 25-50 billion dollars a year in sustainable energy.
is according to the report the main effects of climate change:
PEOPLE IN DANGER - Almost one billion people today rischiano eventi catastrofici: 344 milioni quelle esposte a cicloni tropicali, 521 milioni a inondazioni, 130 a siccità, 2,3 milioni a frane. L'approccio attuale all'emergenza clima sarà cruciale per il 40% più povero, cioè circa 2,6 miliardi di persone. Per dare un'idea delle proporzioni, nei Paesi Ocse le catastrofi climatiche hanno colpito un abitante su 1.500, mentre nei Paesi in via di sviluppo il dato è di 1 su 19.
SALUTE - La diffusione delle principali malattie mortali potrebbe aumentare come la malaria, che già causa circa un milione di decessi all'anno e potrebbe colpire altri 220-400 milioni di persone. Inoltre l'espansione della febbre di dengue potrebbe aumentare le persone a rischio da 1,5 miliardi a 3,5 miliardi entro il 2080.
SICUREZZA ALIMENTARE - La malnutrizione potrebbe colpire 600 milioni entro il 2080.
ECOSISTEMI - Metà dei sistemi di barriere coralline è soggetto allo sbiancamento e i ghiacci si stanno sciogliendo, specie nella regione artica. Con un aumento delle temperature così veloce piante e animali sono in pericolo: se il pianeta dovesse scaldarsi di 3 gradi, il 20-30% delle specie terrestri sarebbe a rischio estinzione.
Ecco invece le possibili contromisure contenute nel rapporto:
OBIETTIVI - Riduzione di gas serra di almeno l'80% entro il 2050, con riduzioni del 20-30% entro il 2020 per i paesi ricchi (in linea con quanto deciso dall'Unione europea); riduzione 20% of emissions by 2050 for developing countries.
EMISSION-TAX - Taxation of emissions to a level of $ 10-20 per tonne of CO2 in 2010 with annual increases up to an altitude of 60-100 dollars per tonne of CO2. 'S adoption of containment systems for trading emissions by 20-30% to reduce CO2 emissions by 2020: 90-100 percent of the permits must be exchanged by 2015.
ADAPTATION - funds are needed "new and additional" at least $ 86 billion a year by 2015.
MITIGATION FUND - Creating a climate change mitigation fund (Ccmf) amounting to 25-50 billion dollars a year for investment in low-carbon energy in developing countries.
ENERGY MIX - For the UN nuclear will play an important but not the solution. 20% EU target for renewable electricity "is achievable." Important chapters energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage of emissions
POST-KYOTO - Reach a binding international agreement to include countries in developing and industrialized countries where to take the lead.